President’s Letter

Dear Fellow NABE Members,

I trust the summer will be a time of reflection on your career aspirations and desire to dive into a project or study that you have been putting off from the spring.  The season's change may be muted where you live or inversely related to our U.S. economy’s timing, but it does offer up an excuse to carve our brain's plasticity in different paths for new thoughts and analysis.  The current business environment certainly lends itself some challenges to those practicing business economics, especially as the onset of global forces tend to modify the most likely outcomes that result from standard models and equations you may have relied upon in years past.  If your analysis is smashing prior records, you are not alone.  One that is most pronounced is the arrival of the emerging market consumer who has moved onto to the global scene of vehicle buying.  During the last five years, global growth of new vehicles has grown at an annual rate of nearly 4.5 percent, more than double the trend rate.  At the same time, the emergence of realities stemming from energy and the environment are fostering choices that go beyond the conventional.   We have much to understand, analyze, and envision for future business decisions in nearly every sector. 

Travel log

Fellow NABE member Gene Huang and I travelled to Shanghai and Beijing and hosted two NABE seminars for groups of business economists, academic, and government officials.  The turnout was perfect and came about with great effort on the part of many NABE members, including Gene, chief economist of FedEx Corporation; Yong Yang, a fellow Ford economist; and the great support of the NABE office staff. 

Our first seminar was held at Fudan University at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs in Shanghai.  Our topics of discussion included recent developments in the financial markets, global integration, and information about our organization.  Many questions were fielded on the credit crunch, whether monetary policy responses were sufficient in mitigating the downtrend in economic activity, and the extent to which there may be a commodity price bubble.  The exchange of views about the United States and China business conditions was educational and exciting. 

We travelled to Beijing and held a second seminar at the State Information Center (SIC), the top government agency responsible for economic data and analysis.  Our hosts included the Mr. Wang Changsheng, chief executive president of the SIC, and Mr. Zhu Baoliang, deputy director general of the Economic Forecasting Department at the SIC.  The dialogue was very interesting and informative.  We discussed policy matters, the strength of the Chinese economy even as U.S. export demand wanes, and the potential dynamics in the Chinese equity market (no forecasts!).

We are set to start chapters in each of these cities with leaders identified and enthusiastic about two key prospects: establishing a network of business economists locally and having meetings with top speakers, as well as initiating an exchange of viewpoints with NABE and possibly attending our meetings in coming years, wherever they may be.

Finally, in closing, could you please send me an e-mail?  I would like to hear from you on how you think we can push the frontier of our professional organization.  I do not know whether we have the resources to accomplish your "dream" organization, but I want to get your thoughts.  We will be sending you a short survey to solicit your comments.  I know you are inundated with surveys, but this is an important one.  We would like to hear from you.  If you have a couple of sentences instead of a survey response, please send them to me at ehughesc@ford.com.  In the meantime, stay on top of your game.

Best wishes,

Ellen Hughes-Cromwick
NABE President